In November 2025 we advised customers that DRAM and NAND/SSD markets were entering a period of sustained volatility, with rising prices, reduced output and extending lead times driven by AI-related demand. Nine months on, that trajectory has not eased – it has intensified. The first half of 2026 delivered some of the steepest quarter-on-quarter price increases the memory industry has ever recorded, and independent analysts now expect constrained supply to persist well beyond this year.
The headline is straightforward: the imbalance we flagged last year has deepened into a structural shortage. Suppliers continue to reallocate capacity toward higher-margin server and HBM products, and meaningful new capacity is not expected to ease the market until late 2027 at the earliest.
1 TechInsights goes further, describing the current situation as the biggest memory shortage in history and expecting DRAM and NAND prices to remain elevated through the rest of the decade.
2 Memory is no longer a spot-buy commodity that can be sourced on demand – for the foreseeable future it needs to be treated as a forecasted, contracted purchase.
| Market Area |
Independent Findings (Mid-2026) |
| DRAM Price Volatility |
Conventional DRAM contract prices rose approximately 90-95% QoQ in Q1 2026, a record quarterly surge.1 For Q2, TrendForce projected a further 58-63% QoQ increase.3 |
| NAND / SSD Pricing |
NAND Flash contract prices rose 55-60% in Q1.1 For Q2, TrendForce projected a further 70-75% QoQ increase – a pace that, if realised, would outpace DRAM for the first time in this cycle.3 |
| Legacy DDR4 / DDR3 |
DDR4 is being phased out by all three major suppliers as capacity shifts to DDR5, LPDDR5X and HBM. In some configurations, legacy DDR4 has traded higher than newer DDR5. DDR3 supply is critically tight. |
| Demand Drivers |
AI is now pulling mainstream system memory, not just HBM. As agentic AI workloads shift server CPU-to-GPU ratios toward 1:1, demand for DDR5 and LPDDR5 is rising alongside HBM.4 |
| Forward Outlook |
Increases are moderating but continuing: DRAM projected +13-18% and NAND +10-15% in Q3 2026.5 Elevated prices expected to persist through the rest of the decade.2 |
| Lead Times |
Industrial-grade module lead times have stretched past 30 weeks in some cases, with allocation controls meaning early orders effectively set deployment schedules. |
What This Means for Customers
- BOM costs for memory-heavy builds have risen sharply and remain unpredictable. Some supply partners are advising customers to plan for continued double-digit monthly price movement through the end of 2026.
- Lead times have extended materially, in some industrial cases from single-digit weeks to well over 30. Where components are on allocation, the timing of your order effectively determines your deployment schedule.
- DDR4 and DDR3 obsolescence risk is now acute for long-lifecycle industrial and embedded designs. Last-Time-Buy (LTB) notices are becoming more common, and some capacities and speeds are already unavailable from certain manufacturers.
- The whole market is tightening simultaneously, which means there is little room to substitute between memory types to relieve the squeeze.
- Long-term supply agreements are increasingly the norm among large buyers, reducing their reliance on the spot market.3 Smaller and unforecast orders are the most exposed to allocation and price movement.
- As in our last advisory, vendors continue to reserve the right to amend pricing and lead times based on component allocation, even for booked orders.
HIPER Global Recommendations
- Engage with us as early as possible on any upcoming build requiring DDR4, DDR3, DDR5 or SSD, and forecast further ahead than you normally would - 12 months or more where the design allows.
- Consider Last-Time-Buy positions on legacy DDR4/DDR3 parts that are difficult to replace, and where volumes justify it, plan a qualified migration path to better-supplied DDR5 densities.
- Place blanket or call-off orders and hold buffer stock against confirmed demand rather than relying on spot availability.
- Review project timelines where memory availability is on the critical path, and build in contingency for allocation-driven slippage.
- Source only through authorised, traceable channels.
- Use HIPER Global's stock holding service to insulate your programmes from lead-time and pricing exposure.
As a UK-based custom compute and OEM partner, HIPER Global is positioned to help you navigate allocation, secure supply and protect your build schedules through the remainder of this cycle. If we can support your forward planning, please get in touch.
Sources
1 TrendForce (2026) Memory Price Outlook for 1Q26 Sharply Upgraded; QoQ Increases of All Product Categories to Hit Record Highs. 2 February. Available at:
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260202-12911.html
2 TechInsights (2026) Why the AI Memory Shortage Could Keep DRAM and NAND Prices High for Years. 26 June. Available at:
https://www.techinsights.com/blog/why-ai-memory-shortage-could-keep-dram-and-nand-prices-high-years
3 TrendForce (2026) AI Server Demand to Drive Memory Contract Price Increases in 2Q26 as CSPs Secure Supply via Long-Term Agreements. 31 March. Available at:
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260331-12995.html
4 TechInsights (2026) DRAM Market Update Q2 2026: Why This Cycle Looks Different. 24 June. Available at:
https://www.techinsights.com/blog/dram-market-update-q2-2026-why-cycle-looks-different
5 TrendForce (2026) AI Server Demand Continues to Support Memory Prices in 3Q26, but Gains Moderate as Consumer Demand Weakens. 3 July. Available at:
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260703-13134.html
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